Bill Keeler 0:00
Still waiting on it. Either way, we're now talking about a $3 trillion stimulus bill that's been passed in the House. Julio Gonzalez is the CEO of Engineered Tax Services. Julio, good morning, Thanks for coming on! What are the chances that that actually gets passed through the Senate and looks anything like it does right now?
Julio Gonzalez 0:24
I think zero, right, zero percentage.
Bill Keeler 0:27
Yeah, I think that's a pretty good guess you're not stepping out on that much of a limb that's that long of a limb. So what do you think will happen though?
Julio Gonzalez 0:36
Well, I think what the administration's really pushing for is the payroll tax holiday for both employers and employees. And I think that would be a big boost and they're looking to do employer retention tax credits, and employer hiring tax credits as well. And those combinations I think, are things that don't cost too much to the Treasury, but ultimately, give incentives to Small businesses to bring people in and and get through the end of the year.
Bill Keeler 1:04
Well, don't you feel it also gives incentive for employees to go back to work. There are some that are better saying, Listen, I'm making more money, staying at home. There's another big stimulus package. I just won't go home. I won't go back to work right away. I think we need that incentive to get people back to work.
Julio Gonzalez 1:26
Right. The heroes act that came out of the house, you know, would put $600 in the these individuals and unemployment through the end of the year. That's really what they'd like to get done in the house is give some incentives to stay at home. Where you're right, we got a we got to cut that off and get people working back to work again, the GDP to grow.
Bill Keeler 1:48
Yeah, we talked about incentives for employers. But I guess we don't know this yet. But a lot of people talk about when we get to the restaurant phase, it will be 50% capacity or whatever. Right? We I know that you're doing. But when you're selling businesses, they have to abide by social distancing. And you can only bring in a percentage of your workforce aren't some of our stimulus plan saying, we'll reimburse all your money if you keep 90% of your workforce, but you can open up to 50% capacity? You know what I mean? Like why you wouldn't have a whole restaurant, for example, you wouldn't have data on if you're only half open. So I guess he can you talk about that? Is that? Did I just make that up? Or is that a real struggle for businesses?
Julio Gonzalez 2:29
Yeah, I mean, that's a real struggle for businesses and part of the this heroes act bill in the Senate and administration. I think they really want to make some changes when you change the rules. When you come out with new incentive programs. You always have these unintended consequences, and this is one of them where, you know, the program doesn't match the benefits, and it doesn't work. 100%. So I think the real goal here is to make some changes make some revisions to the roles So that it ultimately will work for the restaurants and they're working hard with senate and, you know, the administration to get that done.
Bill Keeler 3:07
So if you're if you're out of work right now, and you receive this, the $600, let's say you got the $600, or you're a couple and the 1200 1200 versus 1200 per person. So you got the 1200 bucks, how quickly that is, that is gone. That's like a world ago, I would assume for people. And now we're still in a situation where many of the workers can't work. So whatever they do, I would assume is something that needs to be done pretty quickly. Right?
Julio Gonzalez 3:40
Yeah, pretty quickly. And you know, this morning that Treasury announced that they're now starting to send out the debit cards to other individuals to help get stimulus money out to them as well. 1200 dollars. So, you know, they're working on different avenues to get additional money out to these people and they the CARES Act They're giving some rent relief as well, and some funds for them. So ultimately, you know, and the good news yesterday in the market was that some of these virus, antidotes are starting to work. And that brought up the market. And I think it's giving people hope again.
Bill Keeler 4:14
Yeah. I do want to say that I would love your opinion on this. You know, we saw companies like JC Penney, already struggling, coming into this thing, any brick and mortar retail, many of them were already struggling. So now they're filing for bankruptcy. And some people believe that there'd be a lot of stores and a lot of businesses that are just going they're not going to survive this. So coming out, if they do survive, they're going to be much smaller, and no incentive. just basic incentive is going to is going to save them. So now fewer job opportunities, and you've got more people out on unemployment. This is a this is going to be a tough nut. Crack, don't you think?
Julio Gonzalez 5:01
I think it's going to be a tough nut to crack. I think that this morning, Amazon was reported that they're already looking at the assets for JC Penney's and trying to, you know, acquire them in bankruptcy and pivot one the inventory and creating jobs and for for that segment, so I think you'll see it, a lot of pivoting in the real estate world when it comes to retail, and seeing more of the Amazons of the world coming down to to bail them out.
Bill Keeler 5:31
It's almost like the I just this is probably a stupid example. But during the the writers strike, hollywood writers strike, all of a sudden reality show kind of filled the gap because they didn't need writers. And then once the writers strike ended, they're like, wow, this is really big, cheap, we can do it. It's the best way to go. And all you saw was reality shows for the next three years and we still see reality shows. It changed the world. I would expect that that's really what you're talking about here. That Our world as we knew it was already changing. But this is the straw that broke the camel's back.
Julio Gonzalez 6:06
I think so the new norm, right. I mean, we saw we worked take a big hit yesterday, I talked to 90% of my employees that are now working from home. And we did a survey with them over the last two days, and they indicated they continue to like to work from home and don't see themselves coming back to an office if they don't have to, and I think, you know, will evolve in that as well.
Bill Keeler 6:28
Yeah. But it's really, it's gonna be interesting to see what we all look like by the by the end of the year when all of this looks like because you feel that they have that consumer confidence that, you know, it's one thing to say, Hey, we're opening with social distancing. And another thing to say, Hey, I'm 65 years old. I'm a bit vulnerable. I've got a few issues. I don't feel comfortable going out as often, and that will seem to affect the economy.
Julio Gonzalez 6:57
Yeah, the social distancing does take place, have those big events in those big gatherings and getting on airplanes and go into hotels and going conventions? Right?
Bill Keeler 7:06
Yeah, yeah, changes really changes everything. All right. One final question for you. At the end of this year, if you had to make a prediction, where will we be?
Where will our economy be? Where will we all be as a country?
Julio Gonzalez 7:23
I truly agree with the ministration that the third quarter and fourth quarter will have strong GDP. It'll be growing. I know. The Treasury thinks that's more slated for 2021. But I think we'll have a quicker recovery in the third and fourth quarters.
Bill Keeler 7:39
I hope you're right. Julio Gonzales, CEO of Engineered Ta Services, have a website or social media to follow.
Julio Gonzalez 7:46
Oh, appreciate it at engineeredtaxservices.com and you can follow me on twitter @taxreformexpert.
Bill Keeler 7:53
All right. Sounds good. Thank you so much. We appreciate it. Thank you. Be safe out there who may have been telling us but break